Nigeria’s electoral success is Africa’s success

LESS than 24 hours from today, on Saturday, April 16, Nigeria will hold its fourth presidential election since the Fourth Republic began and it is billed to be the most competitive so far. Not only that, in spite of  faltering start, Nigeria’s 2011 general elections have been so far roundly hailed as relatively the most credible in the country since the world’s largest black nation returned to democracy 12 years ago.

Ensuring the integrity of Nigeria’s elections is crucial to the future of democracy in Africa, especially coming in the year that some 19 presidential elections were on the cards. Laurent Gbagbo had to be arrested to involuntarily concede his obvious defeat, the people of two North African  nations had to force out their ‘elected’ dictators. In the meantime, the battle to introduce multiparty democracy to Libya is raging violently without any clear indication which direction the missiles of resistance from both sides of the struggle may drop.

With the relatively successful conduct of the National Assembly election last Saturday by the Independent National Electoral Commission, Africa’s attention will shift this weekend from Tripoli and Abidjan to Abuja for the presidential election. The INEC Chairman, Prof Attahiru Jega, appears to have weathered the storm, after the half a billion dollar hitch which led to a seven day postponement of both the legislative and presidential polls. He is likely to be the biggest hero this weekend. But, this will only be possible if the 73.5 million Nigerian voters conduct themselves properly or are encouraged and allowed to conduct themselves properly.  Thus, the conduct of INEC, itself, and agents of the competing parties is critical.

There were several reports during last Saturday’s National Assembly election of many voter ID-carrying voters being disenfranchised because at the polling centre they could not locate their names on the voter register, which cost some 18 billion naira to compile. The INEC, we hope, will have corrected this before tomorrow’s polls. It should also not repeat the problem of inadequate supply of voting materials in some polling centres, which was interpreted by some politicians and their supporters as a deliberate act of subversion against them. There is again no reason for electoral officers to arrive late! This is more curious when INEC has introduced something which is worth Ghana’s EC considering: bearing the cost of mass mobilization and transportation of voters to the polls.

It seems clear from his public stance that President Goodluck Jonathan has encouraged a relatively conducive environment for a fairer election. His repeated calls that no supporter should rig for him and that it is not worth spilling the blood of any Nigerian to advance any politician’s ambition have helped the atmosphere and made it less tense than before. The conduct of his party, in particular, many agree, would determine largely how this poll could be violent-free. Nigerians stand on the edge of giving a major boost to Africa’s democracy by pulling this off. It must not fail.

What have made this contest even more positively exciting are the results from the legislative race. Even with results still coming in, it is obvious that the ruling PDP can no longer get the required 250 seats to hit the two-third majority in the House of Representatives it had always enjoyed. Again, it seems to have lost the overall two-third majority in the National Assembly it had boasted about since Olusegun Obasanjo’s second term. This should help deepen democracy by compelling the ruling party to be more sensitive to opposing views.

President Jonathan faces 19 other presidential candidates in a contest to choose the fourth civilian president of the country since its independence in 1960. The closest challenger to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party’s reign is Gen Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change. The failure of the Action Congress of Nigeria to agree formally with Buhari’s party on a joint candidate can only help the incumbent. However, there is likely to be tactical voting, helped, not least, by the expressed willingness of the powerful ACN national leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu going into Tuesday’s talks, to support the more popular Buhari, against the CAN’s own Ribadu.

The New Statesman joins all democracy lovers in Africa for a peaceful and credible presidential poll in Nigeria tomorrow. Nigeria’s success is Ghana’s success. Nigeria’s success is West Africa’s success. Nigeria’s success is Africa’s success. Nigeria’s success is for the good of the black race across the world. To this we pray.

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