What Next for La Cote D’Ivoire?

Laurent Gbagbo, Cote d’Ivoire's isolated and besieged strongman, has finally been seized by opposition forces in Abidjan. His arrest follows weeks of bloodletting and mayhem in the West African country, fuelled by Gbagbo's stubborn refusal to accept the verdict of elections held last November and by months of incendiary rhetoric from him and others in his camp, inciting violence upon supposed ethnic outsiders like the elections' internationally-recognized victor, Alassane Outtara, and the U.N. peacekeeping mission in the country.

But the game is up now for Gbagbo. Much of the Ivorian army supporting him deserted to Ouattara's side or simply melted away. The latest image of Gbagbo is of him looking rather terrified in a room in the Golf Hotel, Ouattara's Abidjan headquarters, which has been defended by a cordon of U.N. peacekeepers who for months had been under threat of attack from Gbagbo’s militia.

But while the likelihood of outright civil war may have diminished, the hard work for Ouattara is only beginning.  The first has to do with Gbagbo's own fate: Ouattara will need to act with restraint.

People will be hoping Gbagbo is hauled in front of the International Criminal Court in The Hague — and he's probably deserving of that — but the conundrum you get at the end of so many conflicts like this is whether you choose justice or peace. Ouattara needs to push for political reconciliation and needs to form a national unity government, and being lenient is probably the best way to achieve that.

The most generous outcome would likely involve a trial of some sort and then a deal for Gbagbo to go into exile. Even then, that'll hardly dispel the ill-feeling and bad blood that has boiled up in recent weeks.

Ouattara's biggest task will be disarming militias on both sides and forging a representative national army. This is the number one challenge that emerged from the last civil war and the main reason why the peace didn't hold. The militias and armed groups didn't demobilize.

Gbagbo's refusal to go was a threat not only to millions of his own countrymen but to the region as a whole. The election in November was already five years late and the result of a series of compromises with the rebels in the north. There was no doubt that he lost the runoff nor that his militias resorted to gang warfare to enforce his unwelcome stay.

Gbagbo's whole political message had emphasized regional differences in the country and asserted a kind of Ivorian nationalism, blaming problems on outsiders and accusing migrants from the north of stealing jobs in the south. If you have a period now where the rhetoric is toned down and political leaders behave with responsibility and bring people together, then wounds may start to heal.

Eleven other elections are due to be held this year in Africa. It is essential that elections mean what they say and that the collective will of regional groups like the Economic Community of West African States is enforced. This may be the only way to break the link between elections and civil disorder.

The precedent set by countries like Ghana, under the leadership of President Mills, and the other six allies in departing from the collective will of regional bodies has to be condemned by all in no uncertain terms. Such acts will only seek to strengthen despots like Laurent Gbagbo who will in turn trample on the will of the people.

If Gbagbo was told by all African Leaders in unequivocal terms, “Respect the will of your people and leave now” he would have known everyone was opposed to his illegal stranglehold on power. He wouldn’t have been emboldened to carry out this needless and senseless attempt to hold onto power which brought in its wake a civil war that has killed thousands and brought untold suffering and hardship on the people of Cote d’Ivoire.

Encouragingly, Ouattara has been making the right noises about investigating atrocities, healing wounds and taking the war-ravaged country forward to better times.  And there are other reasons to be positive. Ouattara entered Ivorian politics after a distinguished career at a number of international financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund.

If he can survive the political storms to come, the country's economy—once one of the leading lights in Africa—may slowly get pulled out of its long downward spiral. That's a prospect, as good as any, for future peace.

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