Sam Jonah spells out Ghana's Poverty
Written by Sam Jonah Wednesday, 29 December 2010 19:33
100 years ago, when the founding father of Adisadel, Bishop Hamlyn, admitted the first intake of students to the SPG grammar school at Topp Yard, even he could not have foreseen the great contribution the school would make to our national development. Throughout the history of Ghana, Santacluasians have been at the forefront of our national development. They were very active in the independence struggle, with some paying dearly for their role in the mobilisation of students for the struggle.
Not surprisingly, on March 6th 1957, 2 santaclausians - Kojo Botsio and K Gbedemah - flanked Kwame Nkrumah at the rally where the independence proclamation was made. Adisadel has produced a Head of State, 3 Chief Justices, 3 Speakers of Parliament, the first Ghanaian Navy Captain among others. The culture of sportsmanship has always been an important part of the school curriculum. The founding fathers considered sports every bit as important as intellectual persuit. Little wonder that over the years, old santaclausians have been active in the promotion and administration of sports at the national level,our illustrious Headmaster, R.T. Orleans Pobee and the late Sam Nelson to mention but a few. By any measure, Adisco has made an immense contribution to the development of the human capital of our nation.
What have been the defining values of the school which made all these achievements possible?
1. A genuine quest for excellence as measured against the highest benchmarks.
The school started with 29 students and 2 years after enrolment, the authorities felt so confident of the academic progress that all 29 were entered in the West African External Examination. Not only did they all pass, indeed one of them broke the West African Examination Record with six distinctions.
2. Creativity, entrepreneurship, Discipline, Hard work, Dogged determination, humility, hunger for adventure (often mistaken for notoriety), and dignity of labour, are some of the endearing values.
3. I take my inspiration for this evening’s lecture from the pervading theme of our School Ode, “Others have laboured and we share the glory, Ours to do exploits and add to their gain; Those who come after will take up our story, May it be worthy of singing again.’
I must say, there is tremendous overlap and convergence between the theme of the school ode and the stirring message and emotive refrain in our unofficial national anthem; “yen ara asaase ni, which poignantly reminds us; mogya a nananom hwie u ...adu me ne wo so, se yebeye be atoa so.......”.
At yesterday’s photo exhibition, we all saw how in the early thirties the students built today’s Adisadel. This was no mean feat. To make those sacrifices and still excel academically, calls for characters with dogged determination, focus and discipline. ‘This is what the Adisadel spirit is all about. Indeed consistent with its self reliance tradition, the then Head master, Allan Knight, selected the musically talented student, Jack Wilmot, to write the music to our beautiful school ode. Today as we celebrate the centenary, we must place on record our appreciation for the strong foundation that the founding fathers of the school bequeathed to us and as we do so, all of us, past and present students must renew our commitment to build on the legacy.
In our celebratory mood, the times we live in demand that we reflect on the attributes that marked Adisadel’s greatness in the overall context of the challenges of our national development.
Today, Adisadel faces many challenges which represent a microcosm of the challenges that Ghana faces after 53 years of independence. I dare say the resolution of these challenges are inextricably linked.
At independence, the population of Ghana was only 5 million. Fifty-three years later the population has more than quadrupled and as we all know, our infrastructure and services have not kept pace with the growth of the population. A hundred years ago the school opened with 29 students. I am told we now have close to 2000 students. I am sure the infrastructure and services have also not kept pace with the explosion in numbers.
A large part of the school’s 100 - year life was in a world which had no computers, no fax machines, no mobile phones and certainly no internet. In my time at Adisadel, the most useful companions of science and mathematics students were log books and slide rules. This was so for my counterparts almost everywhere in the world. So upon graduation from Adisadel, you could compete favourably with any student anywhere whose educational system was similar to ours. Needles to say the educational system which was designed to meet the requirements of the economic system then placed more emphasis on arts and not science and technology. It was adequate for the needs of the world in which we lived.
That world has changed beyond recognition. It is now a global village. All standards are global, thus local standards simply will not meet today’s needs, the competition for any resource is global and everything we do is measured on a global barometer. The world Ghana joined at independence 53 years ago, is a totally different world now; the measures for competitiveness be it education, health, and infrastructure are all denominated by global standards. The level of interconnectivity between nations, industries and work forces is higher than it’s ever been. Ghana now competes with the whole world for jobs, markets and investment funds.
To be fair, we have achieved a lot in 53 years; we have become an island of peace and stability in a sea of failed and failing states, and for this we owe a huge debt of gratitude to our founding father -Dr. Kwame Nkrumah - who forged a sense of nationhood out of Ghanaians to the extent that we have been thus spared the worst excesses of the religious, and ethnic bigotry which have been the main factor undermining the stability of many countries in Africa. Last year, for the first time ever in the history of the sub region, there was a peaceful transition of power by a ruling party which lost to the opposition in a runoff election with razor thin number of votes. In many other parts of the world, this would have been unthinkable. Our country is the envy of many and for this, all of us can be justifiably proud.
We must temper our celebrations with the realisation that for several and varied reasons we have not made as much progress as we should have as the nation which burst on the world stage in 1957, brimming with confidence and promise. Education and health, are the two drivers of any nation’s economic development. Every year, the UNDP publishes the Human Development Index (HDI). The HDI is a composite of measures of 3 dimensions of human development: life expectancy, educational level and, having a decent standard of living. In 2009, Singapore was 0.944; Malaysia 0.829; and Ghana 0.526. In 1957 Ghana was at par if not ahead these countries. Also, according to the 2006 Common Country Assessment report on Ghana, only 86.3% of children of school going age start school, meaning 13.7% don’t go to school at all. 73.4% of children do not go beyond primary or JSS. The proportion that go into tertiary education is less that 50% of those that go to JSS. This means that less that 13% of children go on to tertiary education which includes teacher training, nursery training, polytechnics and universities. A recent University of Ghana survey that 90% of the current crop of its students attended private primary schools. If that is not bad enough, a good 90% of university entrance comes from the major towns. The implication of this situation is that in present day Ghana, It is almost impossible for a child from a village to enter university. When i entered Adisadel in 1962, almost all of us came from the public school system and the university intake at that time would have reflected that fact. Even now, intake into the public school system is much greater than that of the private system. Needless to say, the long term social, economic and political consequences of this trend cannot be overemphasized.
Our health statistics are no better, we train 300 doctors a year while we need a minimum of 1,000 per year to be at par with Kenya.
The following statistics illustrate the point:
Doctor/patient ratio:
Ghana 1 : 10,000; Kenya 1 : 5,000; Sri Lanka 1: 1,700; Malaysia 1: 1,500; UK 1: 300.
Our other health indicators are not impressive either; 13% of children die before their 5th birthday, Anaemia is a proxy of the nutritional status of children and mothers; 78% of children aged 6 to 59 months are anaemic, and 59% of mothers between 15 and 49 years are anaemic.
What these statistics clearly demonstrate is that we are not investing enough in health and education.
Clearly our success as a nation, our ability to build on the progress which has been made in recent times will depend crucially on the growth of the economy. The relative peace and stability we enjoy can only be sustained if there is real economic growth which creates employment opportunities and contributes to the overall wellbeing of the citizenry. If you were to ask me what i consider the most pressing issue of the day, it is JOBS! JOBS! JOBS! President Obama who has been in office for a year, inherited almost intractable challenges. Because of the unusually high levels of unemployment which he inherited and the serious economic meltdown, his honeymoon as a president was short lived and we are all witnessing the most vicious opposition to his presidency in America.
It is said that the devil finds work for idle hands. In recent times when we have had unrests in parts of the country, the evidence clearly suggests that most of the people who have been recruited to perpetrate the unrest have been the unemployed. We therefore cannot overemphasize the desperate need to develop strategies and implement policies that would provide job opportunities for the youth.
As a starting point, the structure of our economy has to undergo radical transformation. You can hardly make progress with an economy characterised by the predominance of trading and commercial activities based mainly on imports and exports with very little domestic production. It is a structure built on dependency rather than self reliance.
Also, the observation has often been made with some validity that, the huge gap in development between us and Malaysia and Singapore is due to our inadequate investment in physical and human capital and innovation. In this new world a country’s progress depends in a large measure on investments made in these sectors. Ghana cannot afford to be left behind. Our Economy must grow at a pace that that will enable substantial investments to be made in the key sectors in particular.
Where is the Capital to grow the Economy going to come from? Let us look at three main potential sources of capital:-
1. EXTERNAL DONOR SUPPORT
In the past two decades or so, a significant part of our economic development has been funded from external donor sources. Indeed even now a large percentage of our national budget is from this source. The situation is simply unsustainable. For one thing the current global economic crisis has necessarily made donor countries more inward looking. Let’s face it, it is not easy to justify serious aid contributions when your own economy is on the ropes. Besides, dependency is suffocating and is incongruous with the assertion of our sovereignty. After all, as the old saying goes, he who pays the piper calls the tune! As a matter of fact, in recent times, we have been a major beneficiary of various Debt forgiveness and relief initiatives of the Multilateral and Bilateral initiatives. We cannot, indeed we must not count on future such initiatives to provide sufficient capital to fuel our growth.
2. GOVERNMENT AS DIRECT INVESTOR
As compared to developed economies, our government‘s role in the economy has been active and deep and as I would observe later, the resulting patronage has had negative consequences in the conduct of business. Government funds its budget from a combination of taxes, duties, debt, and external donor among others. Historically, our Budget deficits have been high and as a consequence, Government borrowings have been substantial with the attendant high interest rate regimes crowding out the private sector. Quite clearly, the government can simply not mobilise the required funding to make a difference to our growth in the short to medium term.
3. PRIVATE INVESTMENTS
Business students are taught that the best source of funding for any business is “other people’s money” popularly known as OPM. It is this source that we must attract. The market for OPM to fuel economic growth is a fiercely competitive one. Let me make it very clear that there is nothing ideological about sourcing funding from this sector. China is after all the biggest consumer of this capital. Private capital is nomadic and would go to where greener pastures are. It has absolutely no loyalty to a region, race, or religion. It appreciates decent returns on its application and it has the luxury of choice, it has expects to be courted.
In this regard, let me say that there is a universal set of criteria that all investors – local and foreign - look for in their investment decision making process. The main ones being; Macro and Micro economic stability, political stability, predictable investment environment, swift and fair administration of justice, fairness of labour laws, corporate and political governance, skills and education level of population and size of market, among others. It is a combination of all of these which may assure the investor of a decent return on his investment.
For the foreign investor, there is an additional criterion and it has to do with how the local investors are treated. This represents the true test of the credibility of the laws, regulations and investment policies of the country. Where there is a perception of unfairness in the treatment of your own people, the foreign investor will have no reason to believe that he would be treated any better. In any case, every investor likes to manage his risk and reward by teaming up with financially strong local investors. It makes eminent sense to do so.
Sadly, local capital mobilization through wealth creation has had a rather chequered history in our country. Local businesses and enterprises have not been spared the vicissitudes of political cycles. A friend made the observation that ‘you know you are in a developed economy when business drives politics and for sure you know you are in a developing economy when politics drives business’. I am afraid that in our country, politics has always driven business. This is often taken to even ridiculous levels. In evaluating businesses for government support, public officials have been known to ascertain whether the promoters of the business are acceptable faces in the CASTLE! With every change of government, too much time and effort seem to be spent on witch hunting even where there are no witches!!!. Our businessmen and entrepreneurs spend precious time navigating through the shark infested waters of Ghanaian politics. Some have paid dearly for having been on the wrong side of the political divide.
There are countless examples. Steve Marfo’s multi million dollar investment in a security printing facility – IKAM - was ruined because of political victimisation. The harrowing experience of my dear friend and brother, Alhaji Yusif Ibrahim who had his fully furnished 87 bed hotel razed to the ground is fresh in our memories. The experience of some of our finest entrepreneurs; BA Mensah, Appiah Menkah, Kwabena Darko and the late SIAW of TATA brewery fame, to name a few, go on to buttress the point made. The terrible frustration that one of our finest entrepreneurs, Asoma Banda, had in his efforts to build ANTRAK Air tells it all.
It hasn’t always been the case. Indeed in the seventies, serious efforts were made to encourage the growth of strong and viable local enterprises. We had prominent entrepreneurs in Commerce, Construction and Manufacturing who were strong enough to compete with their foreign counterparts. The late SIAW built and owned Africa’s largest brewery. We had BA Mensah whose investments included the Rothmans cigarette factory (ITG). Hayford’s construction company built the Ghana Commercial Bank head office at the Nkrumah Circle. Swedru and Oyoko contractors, to name a few, who could compete with their foreign counterparts for contracts to build highways and other big budget contracts. Sadly, most of these businesses are no more and what we see is the total domination by foreign firms some of whose business practices hardly enhance economic linkages for our people.
We need to have policies which support and encourage economic indigenization. Indigenization is a nation building process. It does not happen by accident. It should be a deliberate act of our national development strategy. Don’t get me wrong; foreign entrepreneurs and companies are good for competition. We have seen how the Nigerian banks have changed our banking landscape. They can only complement our local effort. If there are no indigenous companies in construction, manufacturing, the financial sector and other important sectors of the economy, how is Ghana going to create jobs, future entrepreneurs, and indigenous technologies. Indeed how is our future competitiveness going to be measured?
The South African experience is interesting. A deliberate policy was introduced i.e. The BLACK EMPOWERMENT POLICY, to correct a historic wrong which kept a majority of the population - the blacks – out of the ownership of the economy during apartheid era; And only 15 years after independence South Africa has produced numerous formidable black entrepreneurs in diverse sectors of the economy. The indigenisation experiences of Malaysia and Thailand also offer useful lessons.
Clearly in the area of economic empowerment we have not done well for our people. Areeba celebrated its 15 year anniversary in Ghana not too long ago. What may have been lost on most of us was that Areeba which was then owned by a Lebanese family was sold to South Africa’s MTN for about 2.4 billion US dollars. I wonder how much of the 2.4 billion stayed in Ghana. I believe that if this mobile phone license had been given to a Ghanaian, the social and economic spinoffs of such a windfall would have been felt by many. As the adage goes NO SYMPATHAIZER CAN BE MORE MOURNFUL THAN THE BEREAVED! We cannot expect others to love us more than we love ourselves. Heaven helps those who help themselves is a well known maxim. Help from without is often enfeebling in its effects, but help from within invariably invigorates.
Economic empowerment of Ghanaians will only succeed if there is a change in the attitude of Ghanaians to wealth creation in general. Strong and highly emotive language is often used by people in positions of authority to describe successful Ghanaian entrepreneurs. The impression is created that wealth and honesty are incompatible! Indeed it is said that the parlous state of the private sector is a reflection of the Ghanaians’ disdain for successful local entrepreneurs. Going forward, there would be a need for a serious mindset change if we are to develop and harness this source of capital. For now, we would necessarily have to rely heavily on foreign direct investment as our main funding source.
Foreign Direct Investment
This is the most competitive source of funding. The attractiveness of a country as an investment destination is influenced by a whole universe of factors. An Investor has the nimbleness of a deer and the memory of an elephant. In our interconnected world, bad news spreads fast. In investment promotion, a nation’s reputation does matter. When the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times writes about you, it does matter! A country’s attractiveness as an investment decision is also influenced by what I would call the ‘neighbourhood effect’. A coup d’etat in Niger or Guinea can and does have an impact on the investment outlook of Ghana. Religious and ethnic conflicts in Jos Nigeria have an immediate and direct impact on the perception of riskiness of Ghana as an investment destination.
Until recently China and India which account for about 40% of the world population were not active players of the global economic scene. These are large markets, with a highly educated population and work force. Their recent entry into the global economy has provided investors with mouth watering, low hanging fruit opportunities almost at the expense of Africa and this had made it even more challenging for Africa to attract significant foreign direct investment.
Even before the recent global crisis, Africa only attracted 3 percent of the global foreign direct investment with a large part of this three percent going into extractive industries such as mining and oil. Quite apart from a nation’s extractive industry potential, market size and GDP play a big role in investors capital allocation policies. It goes without saying that larger economies are more attractive to the investor than smaller ones. It is therefore not surprising that of the total foreign direct investment that comes to Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa and Morocco attract 60% which leaves the other 48 nations scrambling for the 40%. Ghana currently attracts less than 4% of the total foreign investment in Africa.
Let’s now have a reality check by reflecting on what Ghana has to offer as against other African countries in sectors that attract the most investments in Africa. The sectors currently attracting are Banking, Telecoms, Agribusiness, Mineral resources, Oils & Gas and Tourism.
BANKING & TELECOMS
Amongst other factors (GDP per capita, Average revenue per user etc) banking and telecoms are largely driven by population. In Africa today there are at least ten countries with populations greater than Ghana and of the ten Nigeria, DRC, Egypt, and Ethiopia have populations at least three times that of Ghana. Now ask yourself, how would Ghana compete with these countries in attracting investment into the banking sector? Recently the South Africa banking industry was able to attract FDI to the tune of USD 11billion from Barclays and ICBC together because it has twice the population of Ghana with a just over 4 times the GDP per capita.
AGRIBUSINESS
The ability to attract investments into agribusiness is fundamentally a function of the availability of fertile land, water bodies and access to markets. How would Ghana compete against Uganda the most fertile country in equatorial Africa with almost the same land mass as Ghana? How would we compete against Tanzania - a country with three times Ghana’s land mass, and, whose government decided to reduce the country’s dependence on rainfed farming, and thereby attract investment into the sector, by putting 300,000 hectares under irrigation with a target to irrigate up to 1m hectares by 2013? How can we compete without serious investments in irrigation? How can we compete with our current land tenure system?
MINERAL RESOURCES
When it comes to mineral resources, a mainstay of our economy, the fact of the matter is that most our mines are at a mature stage with declines in production inevitable in the not too distant future. The new crop of Mines will have to come from discoveries of large hidden orebodies. This is a highly capital intensive business and traditionally it is the major mining companies who undertake this very risky business. The fact of our situation is that mineral exploration is at an all time low. Investors are flocking to where the low hanging fruits are. Would Ghana be the first choice for a resource investor? I doubt it. They would rather take the risk on Congo with the hope of finding an “elephant” or Liberia where the contents of a mineral development agreement is an open negotiation or Tanzania which has the most modern mining act in Africa with lots of unexplored ground.
OIL AND GAS
Our discovery of oil has understandably generated a lot of excitement amongst Ghanaians. This excitement needs to be tempered and the discovery put in context. Firstly, on the West Coast of Africa Oil is not unique - Sao Tome, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Chad, Sudan Nigeria and Sierra Leone all have oil. The Chinese have just paid USD5 billion in Niger and expect to be pumping oil in 1011. It is also suggested that all of the Rift Valley is oil rich, with substantial finds being made in Uganda. More importantly Ghana’s jubilee field is expected to produce 150,000 barrels per day whilst Nigeria produces 1.8 million barrels and Angola the continent’s largest producer pumps out 1.9 million barrels per day. Equatorial Guinea with a population of about 633,000, produces 356,000 barrels per day. The point here is twofold, fistly, that our find is relatively small and that one discovery does not necessarily make an industry. Secondly that oil investors have quite a few options as to where in Africa to invest their funds and therefore should be courted, particularly when our discovery came after several years of unsuccessful exploration by GNPC and others. Deep water oil exploration is a very expensive business .In fact the cost of discovering each barrel of oil and gas has risen three-fold over the last decade. Current exploration methods have less than a 10% success rate of discovery of oil fields. Given this situation, it is not surprising that the fear of political risk which leads to contractual uncertainty weighs heavily in investment decisions. All of these factors should inform us to be more proactive and welcoming in our dealings with investors particularly the major oil companies..
TOURISM
Ghana’s record tourist figure was I million in 2007. Tourists to Ghana are made up of predominantly, fly in fly out business people, returning Ghanaians and back packers who tend to be the low end of the tourist spenders. Would a cold tourism investor look at Ghana over and above Egypt which attracts 10.6 million tourists, or South Africa that attracts 9.3million or even Morocco that does 7.4million. Mpumalanga, a province in South Africa attracts 1.3 million tourists per annum that are more than Ghana ever has. Would an investor not prefer Kenya or Tanzania that receives similar numbers to Ghana but attracts the higher end tourists who spend significantly more?
HUMAN CAPITAL
To a large extent human capital underpins development. In the past our excellent public school system groomed our students for university and as a matter of fact most of my generation are products of the public school system. The high standards of elementary and tertiary education in Ghana enabled us to export labour all over the world. Today we have been rewarded for this social investment by the fact that remittances from abroad are currently the country’s third highest income earner after gold and cocoa. However could we confidently say that our current education system will yield the same results? This serious matter and the relevance of our educational system in today’s world, are the matters which should be the subject of active debate and not the duration of the JSS and SSS programmes. As I indicated earlier, availability of skills and the education of the general population are important determinants in the attractiveness of nations as investment destinations.
In 2010 creating the so called enabling environment may no longer be enough to attract certain types of investment because forward looking countries are now prepared to “pay” to attract investments in particular sectors into their countries. This is done through the practice of offering investment incentives i.e. tax reductions and other fiscal concessions, cash grants and loans start up assistance to investors. An example of this is Brazil. As far back as 1995 Volkswagen was scheduled to directly create 1 500 jobs in Brazil. The Brazilian government offered Volkswagen financial incentives to the tune of 140m dollars for dedicated infrastructure and fiscal incentives worth 85 – 155m dollars. The implied incentive costs per direct job was between 54 000 – 94 000 dollars!
Similar incentives were granted to Renault to invest in the creation of 1500 jobs during that same period. The Brazilian examples show how far countries go to attract much needed investments. Today thanks to this aggressive and focused investment strategy Brazil has a flourishing auto manufacturing industry employing thousands.
What I have tried to demonstrate is the fact that in the new global order, Ghana has no clear natural competitive advantages when it comes to attracting Foreign Direct Investment in its ability to attract FDI. Therefore if we sit back and expect investments to roll in, it will not happen. In this new era of globalisation our competitive advantage will come from our ability to think out of the box and implement investor friendly policies and embark on aggressive strategies to grow and encourage local business. Singapore, Dubai and Rwanda offer good examples. We must appreciate that investment promotion is like a beauty pageant! We must not act as if we are the only game in town, because we are not! In the past, there have been far too many examples of our dealings with investors where our officials have been less humble, in fact they have exhibited breathtaking arrogance! Our FDI strategy should be targeted, bold and should be designed to seek and court investors, it should also seek to improve the ease of doing business in this country for foreign and local investors alike. In the recently released Global Competitive Index, Ghana which ranked 102 out of 134 countries in 2009, has fallen to 114. Uganda improved from 128 to 108.We must reverse this trend.
. In this regard, let us take advantage of the upcoming constitutional review to introduce more business friendly legislation that would enhance our competitiveness advantage as an investment destination. What I am advocating is a policy and attitudinal change informed by the position that “Investors do not need Ghana. Ghana needs investors” We should get out of the mentality that suggests investors, especially the multinationals, are out to ‘CHEAT’ us. Given the kind of historical relationship the people in our part of the world have had with the West in general, (slavery, colonial domination etc). It is understandable that we would tend to be suspicious of the motives of companies, especially big multinationals that invest in our country. But let us realize that today there are many worldwide watchdogs including ethical shareholders and numerous non-governmental organizations (NGO’s) whose vigilance makes it much more difficult for companies to engage in exploitative and unethical behaviour.
It should be a policy that recognises the fact that employment generation is key, and will be driven mainly by the promotion of entrepreneurship especially of small and medium business and that we should make a conscious effort to support and encourage them to succeed. We should give equal exposure and opportunity to Ghanaian entrepreneurs, treating them like the proverbial “bird in hand”. We should celebrate their successes and refrain from politicising their businesses. The task at hand is formidable and calls for the mobilisation of all talent and skills, not the exclusion of capable and experienced people on the grounds of leaning of party affiliation.
We must deepen our democracy, by strengthening our institutions, upholding the rule of law and judicial independence, preserving civil and political liberties and strengthen the media. In this regard, as we begin the exercise in constitutional review, it is entirely appropriate therefore, indeed mandatory, that we ask some rather fundamental, even if provocative questions. One of those questions should surely be whether the “winner takes ALL” logic embedded in our Party electoral system in the best way of securing the sort of competitive pluralism we desire. OR whether it is time to contemplate subtle forms of proportional representation that makes coalition building and alliance a more active feature of our democracy. I fear that without open and principled debate on these challenges, we are in danger of perpetuating a nominally democratic system marked by seemingly smooth transitions that only mask increasing polarization and philistinism in our political culture, as we limp along in the race for economic development.
What does all this mean then for Adisadel and the Adisadel spirit? The defining values of the school are as relevant today as they have been this last century. Policies and their implementation depend on people, competent people, brave people, and dedicated people! Over the years Adisadel has developed graduates who are known to be innovative, cleaver and dedicated – people imbued with the Adisadel spirit, and I believe that this will continue, even grow stronger this century.
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